Predicting number of landfalls of hurricanes — Undergraduate Modeling Workshop produces forecasts for 2013

group shot of undergraduates attending May 2013 workshop

Undergraduate workshop from May 2013.

Thirty-four undergraduate students from around the U.S. came to SAMSI and NC State University the week of May 13-17. During the week, the students interacted with an atmospheric scientist who works on hurricane research, and applied mathematicians and statisticians who work on climate research.  Students used the same database as used at NCSU to forecast various aspects of future hurricane seasons, and built Poisson regression models within R to produce their own forecasts of the 2013 hurricane season in the US. Below are some comments from participants:

three students with signs

Corey Raphael, U. Florida, Jonathan Skantz, U. Florida and Gwen Tian, U. British Columbia.

Corey Raphael, University of Florida
“I had a great time during my week at SAMSI! I learned all about climate science and hurricane predictions, and met a lot of great people. Thanks for all the advice and free food! I enjoyed getting to know the Raleigh area, and I learned a lot about R that I didn’t know previously. I hope the program enjoyed having me as much as I enjoyed being here!”

Group 3 shot

Evan Bittner, Penn State, Kasey Palmquist, UNC Wilmington, and Daria Drozdova, Pomona College.

Kasey Palmquist, University of North Carolina at Wilmington
“The workshop was an excellent experience; I truly feel that I am not leaving empty-handed. I not only learned new methods of statistical analysis, but how to collaborate with a group of people on a research topic. I found this workshop beneficial because it allows undergraduates to get a “feel” of mathematical/statistical research in order to see if it is right for them. I found the workshop to also be a great way to network and meet people that share the same interests as you. Overall, great experience!”

Group 6 SAMSI undergraduate modeling workshop May 2013

Brandon Sherman, U. Pitt, Kehao Zhu, Purdue, and Vinicius Taguchi, NCSU

Vinicius Taguchi, North Carolina State University
“This workshop was a wonderful experience.  I gained a better appreciation for statistics and applied mathematics, made lasting friendships, and got to see a new side of NC State University.  When I first got here, I was a little concerned about being one of the few non-math/stats majors, as well as one of the very few underclassmen.  Nevertheless, this never became an issue and I felt like part of the group right from the get-go.  Thank you, SAMSI.”

Group 2 photo SAMSI undergraduate modeling workshop May 2013

Lee Richardson, U. Washington-Seattle, Charles Ho, Rice and Anna Peris, Marquette.

Lee Richardson, University of Washington at Seattle
From his Twitter feed – “Predicted a Poisson Distribution with a mean 3.96. AKA 56% chance of greater than 4 hurricanes!!!!!”

Here are some of the presentations that the students gave the last day of the workshop.


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